tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1472 at 08:42, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1472 Southwest SAN 08:42 MSY 14:19 14% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 42m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:58 → IAH 13:27UA 2760 1h 30m Houston IAH 14:57 → MSY 16:27UA 2738 6h 29m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 56m Dulles IAD 18:04 → MSY 19:40UA 251 9h 40m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Los Angeles LAX 16:00 → MSY 21:51DL 2154 8h 57m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:51 → MSY 18:27DL 678 8h 27m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 48m Houston IAH 20:13 → MSY 21:35UA 2161 7h 37m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450 7h 52m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 56m Denver DEN 13:13 → MSY 16:57UA 250 6h 12m 90% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON