Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3471 at 12:42, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3471 Southwest	SAN 12:42	STL 18:04	28%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	9h 09m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543	7h 37m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 15:05 → STL 16:41DL 1224	8h 21m	99%	87%
American Details →	SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:51 → STL 16:41AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	8h 21m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833	9h 58m	98%	86%
United Details →	SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237	2h 52m Houston	IAH 20:17 → STL 22:42UA 1528	8h 44m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492	7h 14m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	7h 35m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON