Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2616 SAT 04:57 → DFW 06:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1961 SAT 16:19 → DFW 17:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2616 American Flight history →	SAT 04:57	DFW 06:24	3%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2342 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:18	3%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 3098 American Flight history →	SAT 07:00	DFW 08:20	6%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 2377 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	DFW 09:24	6%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	SAT 10:40	DFW 12:04	7%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 1631 American Flight history →	SAT 09:31	DFW 10:50	8%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 620 American	SAT 20:10	DFW 21:38	8%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3742 Envoy	SAT 18:57	DFW 20:21	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 413 American Flight history →	SAT 12:30	DFW 13:52	11%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 2768 American	SAT 14:00	DFW 15:25	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2609 American Flight history →	SAT 18:17	DFW 19:36	12%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1961 American Flight history →	SAT 16:19	DFW 17:39	12%	5%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON