Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 1604 at 05:01, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1604 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	MIA 09:00	4%	2%	0.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 42m	98%	89%
American Details →	SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 10m	96%	88%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:58 → MIA 12:56AA 1219	6h 55m	99%	87%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:26AA 2616	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454	8h 28m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 55m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	7h 46m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 09m	96%	84%
American Details →	SAT 08:00 → CLT 11:57AA 3297	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 13:34 → MIA 15:41AA 1198	6h 41m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON