tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 214 United SAT 07:49 SFO 09:48 6% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 04m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → SAT 04:52 → DFW 06:13AA 2616 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949 6h 01m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:14 → SFO 10:08AA 2309 7h 07m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 12:03 → SFO 14:22AA 398 10h 21m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 10h 27m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:43 → IAH 12:53UA 1282 2h 37m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 52m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 7h 33m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 3h 14m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 8h 16m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON