Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: UA 2828 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day


UA 2828 United Flight history →	SAV 06:15	EWR 08:27	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
UA 546 United Flight history →	SAV 15:24	EWR 17:37	20%	6%	0.8%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 50m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 38m	98%	86%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 10:55 → EWR 12:53AA 1697	5h 53m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SAV 08:09 → ATL 09:17DL 686	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 07m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 21m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAV 12:45 → ATL 13:58DL 3054	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 08m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SAV 17:05 → ATL 18:19DL 3014	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	6h 47m	98%	80%
United Details →	SAV 18:55 → IAD 20:57UA 6165 · flown by Mesa	1h 32m Dulles	IAD 22:29 → EWR 23:59UA 1997	5h 04m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON