Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3708 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 3708 SAV 06:12 → ORD 07:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2499 SAV 16:50 → ORD 18:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3708 Republic	SAV 06:12	ORD 07:50	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 485 United	SAV 08:50	ORD 10:25	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1464 United	SAV 12:43	ORD 14:15	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4054 Envoy	SAV 12:01	ORD 13:29	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2499 United	SAV 16:50	ORD 18:20	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON