Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:55 am at Santa Barbara); 3 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1790 at 12:48, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1790 United Flight history →	SBA 12:48	DEN 16:16	14%	4%	0.4%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	7h 44m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:01 → DEN 00:29 +1DL 8924	6h 39m	99%	88%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 18:24 → DEN 21:56UA 2436	6h 58m	98%	84%
United Details →	SBA 13:55 → ORD 20:09UA 1009	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 21:55 → DEN 23:30UA 767	8h 35m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:53 → DEN 19:21DL 1586	5h 41m	99%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON