Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 12:24, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1822 American	SBA 12:24	DFW 17:43	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	5h 40m	99%	88%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → DFW 14:25UA 1062	6h 10m	98%	88%
United Details →	SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:44 → DFW 12:52UA 1350	5h 52m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	6h 43m	99%	85%
United Details →	SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790	2h 37m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 11m	97%	83%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 16:53 → DFW 22:36UA 1336	6h 38m	93%	78%
American Details →	SBA 12:22 → PHX 14:02AA 2928	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 17:31 → DFW 22:02AA 2210	7h 40m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON