tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 4649 at 06:00, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4649 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 06:00 LAX 07:03 4% 3% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 37m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 08:55 → LAX 10:23UA 1457 4h 08m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 18:51 → LAX 20:36UA 1799 6h 38m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m San Francisco SFO 19:55 → LAX 21:38UA 8136 5h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SBA 18:18 → SLC 21:29DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 5h 24m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 27m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 5h 46m 92% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 48m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 5h 30m 50% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON