Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1009 United Flight history →	SBA 12:37	ORD 19:00	23%	9%	0.6%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:29 → ORD 00:43 +1UA 1958	8h 45m	98%	86%
United Details →	SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	96%	85%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946	6h 35m	96%	84%
United Details →	SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790	2h 54m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258	8h 01m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	6h 49m	98%	80%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	50m San Francisco	SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568	6h 35m	89%	78%
American Details →	SBA 12:22 → PHX 14:02AA 2928	3h 57m Phoenix	PHX 17:59 → ORD 23:37AA 2569	9h 15m	94%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON