Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 3114 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–21%.

Safest bet that day OO 3114 SBA 06:02 → SAN 07:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3449 SBA 14:25 → SAN 15:39 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3114 SkyWest	SBA 06:02	SAN 07:12	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 3103 SkyWest	SBA 06:11	SAN 07:25	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4494 Southwest	SBA 11:15	SAN 12:18	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 164 Southwest	SBA 10:40	SAN 11:51	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 3112 SkyWest	SBA 15:14	SAN 16:41	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 3449 SkyWest	SBA 14:25	SAN 15:39	21%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON