Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 514 SDF 12:28 → CLT 14:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2413 SDF 08:11 → CLT 09:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 514 PSA	SDF 12:28	CLT 14:02	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 12:38	CLT 14:15	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
OH 5220 PSA	SDF 19:27	CLT 21:02	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2099 American Flight history →	SDF 09:44	CLT 11:20	8%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 1349 American	SDF 06:18	CLT 07:51	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1511 American	SDF 06:22	CLT 07:56	9%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2296 American	SDF 14:35	CLT 16:06	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 9830 American	SDF 22:39	CLT 23:56	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2413 American	SDF 08:11	CLT 09:39	12%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON