Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4051 SDF 11:42 → DFW 12:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2813 SDF 16:12 → DFW 17:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4051 Envoy	SDF 11:42	DFW 12:59	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 13:18	DFW 14:40	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 17:59	DFW 19:13	9%	3%	0.6%	69%
AA 331 American Flight history →	SDF 11:37	DFW 12:50	9%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 1645 American	SDF 08:23	DFW 09:52	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2813 American	SDF 16:12	DFW 17:27	15%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON