tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4502 Southwest SDF 05:51 MCO 07:50 2% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 8508 Southwest SDF 11:48 MCO 13:49 10% 3% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 11m Detroit DTW 12:27 → MCO 15:06DL 1123 7h 16m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 7h 48m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 6h 24m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 4h 55m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 2h 32m Newark EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396 7h 33m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic 3h 13m Philadelphia PHL 12:51 → MCO 15:23AA 3153 7h 46m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa 1h 48m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 6h 45m 96% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON