tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 719 Alaska SEA 18:27 ABQ 22:18 20% 3% 0.5% no record
AS 327 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:50 ABQ 13:53 21% 3% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 15:10 → LAX 17:51DL 2830 2h 56m Los Angeles LAX 20:47 → ABQ 23:48DL 4098 · flown by SkyWest 7h 38m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:41 → DEN 19:21UA 757 1h 49m Denver DEN 21:10 → ABQ 22:54UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:16 → ABQ 12:46UA 476 6h 46m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:00 → LAX 10:02AA 4896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m Los Angeles LAX 13:38 → ABQ 16:49AA 6515 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 9h 10m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → ABQ 15:19AA 3053 9h 14m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON