Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 2141 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day AS 2141 SEA 06:57 → BZN 09:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 277 SEA 12:22 → BZN 14:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 2141 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SEA 06:57	BZN 09:45	8%	4%	1.2%	95%
DL 4039 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:59	BZN 22:49	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 4104 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:40	BZN 14:35	14%	6%	0.6%	84%
AS 1323 Alaska	SEA 20:30	BZN 23:03	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 277 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:22	BZN 14:58	19%	5%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON