Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2601 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2601 SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 602 SEA 14:37 → DEN 18:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2601 United Flight history →	SEA 05:00	DEN 08:43	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 4697 Southwest	SEA 06:46	DEN 10:21	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2851 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:59	DEN 23:44	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 757 United Flight history →	SEA 15:41	DEN 19:20	13%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1505 United Flight history →	SEA 08:56	DEN 12:45	13%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:10	DEN 12:02	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 2860 Southwest	SEA 18:56	DEN 22:27	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 2033 United	SEA 12:45	DEN 16:45	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 3406 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 16:36	DEN 20:28	17%	4%	0.8%	78%
UA 142 United	SEA 11:39	DEN 15:12	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:20	DEN 10:53	18%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 1384 Southwest	SEA 13:32	DEN 17:04	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:50	DEN 17:43	23%	5%	0.6%	39%
AS 310 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:38	DEN 00:11	24%	3%	0.6%	65%
WN 4507 Southwest	SEA 12:44	DEN 16:18	25%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 304 Alaska	SEA 13:29	DEN 17:05	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:44	DEN 15:38	25%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 602 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:37	DEN 18:00	33%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON