Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2748 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2748 SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 767 SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2748 American Flight history →	SEA 05:05	DFW 11:02	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 1667 American Flight history →	SEA 07:26	DFW 13:20	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 1648 Alaska	SEA 00:13	DFW 05:27	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 870 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:55	DFW 23:55	16%	5%	0.6%	73%
AS 340 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:45	DFW 13:49	16%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 757 American Flight history →	SEA 15:21	DFW 21:24	17%	5%	0.6%	74%
AS 542 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:20	DFW 00:11	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
AS 485 Alaska	SEA 14:32	DFW 20:21	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 727 American Flight history →	SEA 17:40	DFW 23:39	19%	5%	0.7%	60%
DL 803 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:05	DFW 17:00	20%	5%	0.6%	81%
AA 717 American Flight history →	SEA 13:57	DFW 20:04	22%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 707 American Flight history →	SEA 10:22	DFW 16:30	22%	5%	0.6%	79%
AS 341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:59	DFW 17:00	26%	4%	0.6%	64%
AA 767 American Flight history →	SEA 11:40	DFW 17:50	26%	7%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON