Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 349 at 20:39 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day AS 349 SEA 20:39 → FAI 23:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 441 SEA 09:54 → FAI 12:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 349 Alaska	SEA 20:39	FAI 23:19	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 351 Alaska	SEA 23:13	FAI 01:54	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:45	FAI 13:42	22%	4%	0.8%	77%
AS 284 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:56	FAI 20:46	22%	3%	0.7%	75%
AS 230 Alaska	SEA 12:02	FAI 14:51	30%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 381 Alaska	SEA 09:48	FAI 12:38	30%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 96 Alaska	SEA 11:58	FAI 14:46	31%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 441 Alaska	SEA 09:54	FAI 12:41	31%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON