Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: OO 6053 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 6053 SEA 06:23 → LAX 09:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 524 SEA 22:07 → LAX 00:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6053 SkyWest	SEA 06:23	LAX 09:40	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1628 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	LAX 10:05	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
AS 505 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:03	LAX 08:47	9%	1%	0.7%	84%
AA 4896 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:00	LAX 10:02	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2914 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:35	LAX 15:23	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2769 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:05	LAX 12:55	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:11	LAX 19:44	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2830 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:10	LAX 17:51	14%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2512 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:31	LAX 00:02	15%	3%	0.7%	70%
OO 4988 SkyWest	SEA 14:23	LAX 17:03	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1403 United	SEA 16:27	LAX 18:58	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2861 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	LAX 20:13	15%	3%	0.6%	76%
OO 4729 SkyWest	SEA 12:39	LAX 15:18	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1178 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 20:31	LAX 23:13	19%	5%	1.2%	83%
AS 492 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:10	LAX 19:55	19%	3%	0.7%	78%
AS 696 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	LAX 16:25	20%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 1306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:11	LAX 12:47	20%	3%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AS 1300 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:19	LAX 19:51	22%	4%	0.6%	77%
AS 458 Alaska	SEA 15:10	LAX 17:41	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 63 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:14	LAX 22:38	22%	3%	0.7%	72%
AS 487 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:05	LAX 15:30	28%	3%	0.6%	57%
AS 524 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:07	LAX 00:18	28%	3%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON