Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 3953 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 3953 SEA 07:30 → PDX 08:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1700 SEA 13:46 → PDX 14:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3953 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:30	PDX 08:40	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 3997 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:16	PDX 21:38	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
OO 3910 SkyWest	SEA 22:54	PDX 00:05	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3913 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:59	PDX 22:00	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 3918 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:00	PDX 17:06	12%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 4062 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:37	PDX 14:48	13%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 3818 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:30	PDX 10:35	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 3802 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:35	PDX 11:41	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
OO 3145 SkyWest	SEA 10:20	PDX 11:27	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 453 Alaska	SEA 07:04	PDX 07:56	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 434 Alaska	SEA 19:07	PDX 20:05	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1867 Alaska	SEA 21:01	PDX 22:02	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 488 Alaska	SEA 13:49	PDX 14:35	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 441 Alaska	SEA 16:04	PDX 16:59	26%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1700 Alaska	SEA 13:46	PDX 14:40	30%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 2432 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 06:42	PDX 07:37	2%	0%	1.9%	98%
AS 2387 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 20:25	PDX 21:22	17%	6%	0.0%	83%
AS 2372 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 19:22	PDX 20:17	18%	2%	0.0%	82%
AS 2302 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:59	PDX 18:56	25%	8%	0.0%	75%
AS 2181 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 12:05	PDX 13:06	40%	4%	0.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON