Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3704 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3704 SEA 05:35 → PHX 08:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 269 SEA 12:32 → PHX 15:16 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3704 Southwest	SEA 05:35	PHX 08:29	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:18	13%	4%	0.6%	96%
MQ 3583 Envoy	SEA 06:00	PHX 08:58	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2447 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:30	PHX 23:33	15%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:14	PHX 19:19	16%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	PHX 11:20	18%	6%	0.7%	92%
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 18:39	PHX 21:46	19%	4%	0.6%	68%
DL 2698 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:30	PHX 21:29	19%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 4117 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 12:04	PHX 15:13	20%	5%	0.6%	88%
AS 632 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:55	PHX 22:53	22%	4%	0.6%	74%
AS 606 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:26	PHX 10:21	23%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
MQ 4207 Envoy	SEA 14:48	PHX 17:42	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4784 Southwest	SEA 08:27	PHX 11:27	24%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:06	PHX 15:58	24%	5%	0.7%	79%
AS 700 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	PHX 16:45	30%	5%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
AS 744 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:59	PHX 17:46	35%	5%	0.6%	75%
AS 746 Alaska	SEA 17:02	PHX 19:44	35%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 449 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:16	PHX 13:07	36%	5%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:29	PHX 15:17	36%	6%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
WN 1394 Southwest	SEA 14:36	PHX 17:22	37%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 269 Southwest	SEA 12:32	PHX 15:16	42%	8%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON