Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2508 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SEA 07:15 → SAN 10:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 635 SEA 17:16 → SAN 19:52 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SAN 10:11	9%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:15	SAN 18:05	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2672 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:40	SAN 22:34	13%	3%	0.8%	75%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:14	SAN 15:16	17%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SAN 12:39	18%	3%	0.7%	82%
AS 247 Alaska	SEA 21:05	SAN 23:30	23%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:43	SAN 10:19	25%	3%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
WN 3538 Southwest	SEA 09:00	SAN 11:35	27%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 650 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:00	SAN 11:39	27%	3%	0.7%	81%
AS 621 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:29	SAN 15:08	27%	3%	0.7%	82%
WN 2623 Southwest	SEA 18:20	SAN 21:00	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 765 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:31	SAN 17:04	30%	4%	0.7%	78%
AS 697 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:19	SAN 13:56	33%	4%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
AS 635 Alaska	SEA 17:16	SAN 19:52	33%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON