Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 494 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:38	SAT 15:46	27%	5%	0.6%	76%
AS 9461 Alaska	SEA 11:14	SAT 17:20	34%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:35DL 953	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	9h 30m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:29 → ATL 08:15DL 652	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	11h 09m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	6h 06m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580	9h 06m	97%	86%
American Details →	SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379	4h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:18 → SAT 13:14AA 1916	10h 59m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → SAT 18:36DL 2893	10h 36m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → SAT 17:23DL 2199	8h 08m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	4h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:40 → SAT 00:26 +1DL 2797	8h 56m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:22 → SAT 18:32AA 3899 · flown by Envoy	6h 10m	62%	54%
American Details →	SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SAT 20:09AA 2368	6h 29m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON