Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 3956 at 20:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 3956 SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 658 SEA 11:25 → SJC 13:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3956 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:30	SJC 22:48	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:30	SJC 10:55	8%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SJC 20:14	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SJC 17:05	10%	3%	0.5%	85%
OO 168 SkyWest	SEA 12:56	SJC 15:13	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4516 Southwest	SEA 09:40	SJC 11:43	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2826 Southwest	SEA 19:56	SJC 22:00	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4517 Southwest	SEA 15:12	SJC 17:20	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 1303 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:25	SJC 20:35	20%	4%	0.7%	83%
AS 1444 Alaska	SEA 20:57	SJC 22:51	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:30	SJC 18:29	25%	3%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AS 657 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:51	SJC 16:00	25%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 658 Alaska	SEA 11:25	SJC 13:30	30%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON