Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3542 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3542 SEA 06:01 → SMF 07:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 681 SEA 17:19 → SMF 19:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3542 Southwest	SEA 06:01	SMF 07:48	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4131 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	SMF 22:31	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:10	SMF 12:17	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
OO 164 SkyWest	SEA 08:39	SMF 10:44	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:40	SMF 16:39	10%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:00	SMF 18:57	13%	3%	0.5%	89%
WN 3544 Southwest	SEA 19:53	SMF 21:44	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 1461 Alaska	SEA 07:27	SMF 08:56	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3543 Southwest	SEA 16:10	SMF 17:55	20%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 691 Alaska	SEA 21:04	SMF 22:40	22%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 288 Alaska	SEA 12:22	SMF 14:12	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 763 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:12	SMF 12:01	23%	3%	0.6%	75%
AS 681 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:19	SMF 19:00	28%	3%	0.6%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON