Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 3160 at 18:23 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day OO 3160 SEA 18:23 → TUS 21:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 648 SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3160 SkyWest	SEA 18:23	TUS 21:54	11%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 3680 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:25	TUS 11:47	20%	10%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
AS 648 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:19	TUS 13:31	33%	5%	0.6%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON