Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 1301 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day B6 1301 FLL 07:00 → LAX 09:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 996 MIA 15:47 → LAX 18:11 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1301 JetBlue	FLL 07:00	LAX 09:43	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:46	LAX 11:21	13%	3%	0.7%	93%
B6 2801 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:15	LAX 11:33	13%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 11:36	LAX 14:25	16%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 573 Delta	FLL 17:24	LAX 19:58	19%	7%	1.9%	no record
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	20%	9%	1.3%	71%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:43	LAX 16:14	22%	8%	0.8%	73%
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LAX 21:00	23%	9%	1.6%	72%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	25%	9%	1.2%	84%
AA 2458 American	MIA 21:55	LAX 00:36	25%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 996 American	MIA 15:47	LAX 18:11	31%	10%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 25m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 45m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON