Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 765 at 21:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 765 SFO 21:04 → ACV 22:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4708 SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 765 United	SFO 21:04	ACV 22:33	13%	9%	2.3%	no record
UA 3925 United	SFO 08:26	ACV 09:44	17%	8%	2.1%	no record
UA 419 United	SFO 16:20	ACV 17:40	19%	9%	2.1%	no record
UA 4715 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:53	ACV 15:13	23%	9%	2.7%	78%
UA 4708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:15	ACV 11:42	25%	16%	2.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON