tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 12h 28m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:42 → SEA 15:50AS 68 3h 22m Seattle SEA 19:12 → ANC 21:59AS 1438 9h 17m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 1h 20m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 39m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:59 → DFW 13:29AA 304 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:11 → ANC 19:35AA 399 12h 36m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 32m Denver DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:56UA 280 11h 13m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 7h 29m 93% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:26 → SEA 17:27AS 630 3h 22m Seattle SEA 20:49 → ANC 23:35AS 228 9h 09m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 17:39 → SEA 19:47AS 1340 3h 08m Seattle SEA 22:55 → ANC 01:40 +1AS 205 9h 01m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 17:39 → SEA 19:47AS 1340 1h 02m Seattle SEA 20:49 → ANC 23:35AS 228 6h 56m 74% 59%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:42 → SEA 15:50AS 68 1h 09m Seattle SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225 6h 56m 70% 54%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 1h 05m Seattle SEA 13:32 → ANC 16:20AS 1440 7h 02m 52% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON