tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, UA 562 at 12:00, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 562 United Flight history → SFO 12:00 BZN 15:21 19% 4% 0.5% 65%
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 13:56 BZN 17:11 69% 24% 3.8% 31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 27m 98% 91%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 28m Portland PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 393 4h 50m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 16m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 3h 24m Denver DEN 11:59 → BZN 13:48UA 741 7h 48m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:08 → SLC 16:01DL 902 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 36m 92% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 25m 93% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 31m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:29 → BZN 15:34AA 947 7h 49m 95% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON