Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1479 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1479 SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3504 SFO 13:35 → DEN 16:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1479 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	DEN 08:35	5%	1%	0.5%	96%
UA 301 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	DEN 00:47	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
F9 1230 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 06:00	DEN 09:46	7%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 2448 United	SFO 07:14	DEN 10:59	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2436 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	DEN 22:44	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 2117 United	SFO 19:49	DEN 23:40	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1469 United	SFO 08:53	DEN 12:35	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4703 Southwest	SFO 06:44	DEN 10:06	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1835 United	SFO 16:33	DEN 20:24	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 540 United Flight history →	SFO 12:43	DEN 16:35	14%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SFO 10:40	DEN 14:23	15%	3%	0.5%	68%
F9 3436 Frontier	SFO 11:42	DEN 15:33	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	SFO 14:20	DEN 18:11	18%	4%	0.5%	71%
WN 3551 Southwest	SFO 18:02	DEN 21:32	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 8510 Southwest	SFO 11:39	DEN 14:56	27%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3504 Southwest	SFO 13:35	DEN 16:56	30%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON