Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 686 SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 3930 SFO 12:39 → IAH 18:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 686 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	IAH 13:11	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	IAH 10:55	5%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 505 United Flight history →	SFO 00:04	IAH 06:14	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 604 United Flight history →	SFO 00:45	IAH 06:34	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	SFO 08:55	IAH 15:07	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	IAH 22:52	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1649 United	SFO 17:02	IAH 22:52	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2831 United	SFO 14:25	IAH 20:26	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1259 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAH 16:52	14%	3%	0.6%	61%
UA 1387 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	IAH 18:27	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 3930 United	SFO 12:39	IAH 18:39	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON