Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 234 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–10%.

Safest bet that day AA 234 SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 42 SFO 13:38 → JFK 22:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	3%	1%	0.8%	92%
DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	4%	1%	0.7%	90%
DL 667 Delta	SFO 00:10	JFK 08:21	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	5%	1%	0.7%	89%
AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	6%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 319 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:29	JFK 06:57	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
B6 616 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 00:07	JFK 08:42	6%	2%	0.7%	85%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	7%	1%	0.7%	80%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 09:08	JFK 17:29	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	9%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:15	JFK 00:36	9%	3%	0.7%	77%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:00	JFK 16:37	9%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	9%	4%	0.8%	73%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:25	JFK 05:07	10%	3%	0.7%	74%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	10%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	11%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	11%	3%	0.8%	74%
DL 631 Delta	SFO 14:57	JFK 23:17	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	14%	3%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	8h 00m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 57m	98%	89%
American Details →	SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 13:32 → JFK 17:01AA 2485	7h 57m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON