Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4524 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4524 SFO 06:54 → LAS 08:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1231 SFO 17:39 → LAS 19:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4524 Southwest	SFO 06:54	LAS 08:27	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1627 United	SFO 08:41	LAS 10:32	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 406 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	LAS 23:10	8%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 1995 United Flight history →	SFO 19:37	LAS 21:27	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 751 United Flight history →	SFO 17:37	LAS 19:27	10%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 611 United Flight history →	SFO 10:42	LAS 12:28	12%	4%	0.5%	80%
UA 2352 United	SFO 14:01	LAS 15:43	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1777 United	SFO 12:29	LAS 14:13	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 718 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:52	LAS 12:33	14%	3%	0.6%	91%
F9 4156 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 00:20	LAS 02:13	14%	6%	1.2%	55%
F9 2486 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 15:04	LAS 17:04	14%	8%	1.2%	68%
AS 776 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:52	LAS 17:33	15%	4%	0.6%	63%
F9 4402 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 19:03	LAS 20:54	15%	7%	1.3%	65%
WN 1138 Southwest	SFO 14:31	LAS 16:02	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 4158 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:20	LAS 13:10	18%	8%	1.2%	67%
WN 1231 Southwest	SFO 17:39	LAS 19:11	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON