Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1842 at 22:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1842 SFO 22:42 → MIA 07:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1458 SFO 12:27 → MIA 21:08 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1842 American	SFO 22:42	MIA 07:20	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 09:32	MIA 18:11	21%	7%	0.8%	72%
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:27	MIA 21:08	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	1h 14m Houston	IAH 07:48 → MIA 11:48UA 2753	8h 03m	94%	86%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:45 → MIA 15:42UA 1418	7h 42m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	7h 55m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON