tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2119 United SFO 08:26 MSY 14:37 11% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 1h 10m Detroit DTW 14:19 → MSY 15:49DL 1652 8h 09m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:45 → MSY 11:05UA 575 8h 20m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:55UA 505 1h 35m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 6h 41m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 6h 39m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → MSY 15:59DL 362 7h 59m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → MSY 23:31DL 2224 9h 53m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 57m Houston IAH 14:52 → MSY 16:16UA 2738 9h 16m 100% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON