Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1757 SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest UA 1845 SFO 10:51 → RNO 11:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1757 United Flight history →	SFO 22:45	RNO 23:58	12%	4%	0.6%	64%
UA 581 United	SFO 18:48	RNO 20:04	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2690 United	SFO 16:48	RNO 18:02	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1845 United	SFO 10:51	RNO 11:57	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON