tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1905 United SFO 12:43 STL 18:38 23% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 3564 Southwest SFO 12:16 STL 18:06 31% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 3h 36m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 44m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 29m Minneapolis MSP 15:05 → STL 16:41DL 1224 8h 41m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 10h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 43m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609 8h 40m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833 10h 08m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 7h 52m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:51 → STL 16:41AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 7h 56m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON