Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4129 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 4129 SGF 07:15 → ORD 09:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OO 5686 SGF 14:58 → ORD 16:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4129 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:15	ORD 09:05	7%	4%	0.6%	83%
MQ 3584 Envoy	SGF 10:27	ORD 12:13	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5573 SkyWest	SGF 06:13	ORD 07:58	7%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5407 SkyWest	SGF 11:09	ORD 12:55	11%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	SGF 15:07	ORD 16:51	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3594 Envoy	SGF 19:41	ORD 21:25	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5570 SkyWest	SGF 18:21	ORD 20:04	18%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 5686 SkyWest	SGF 14:58	ORD 16:44	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 4421 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 07:45	ORD 09:40	19%	9%	4.9%	81%
UA 4525 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 11:19	ORD 13:12	33%	18%	3.3%	67%
UA 4466 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:07	ORD 17:02	35%	17%	5.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON