Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:13 am at San Jose)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	6h 46m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 18:12 → LAX 19:34DL 1438	2h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:38 → PDX 11:40AS 2274 · flown by Horizon	3h 33m Portland	PDX 15:13 → RNO 16:43AS 2087 · flown by Horizon	7h 05m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	SJC 11:42 → PDX 13:47AS 3379 · flown by SkyWest	50m Portland	PDX 14:37 → RNO 16:08AS 479	4h 26m	82%	69%
American Details →	SJC 14:48 → DFW 20:26AA 2834	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:55 → RNO 23:32AA 1273	8h 44m	89%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON