tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 11h 28m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20UA 1502 3h 43m Chicago ORD 16:03 → ANC 19:18UA 461 13h 18m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:27 → PDX 13:31AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Portland PDX 15:01 → ANC 18:00AS 315 7h 33m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 2h 47m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 8h 38m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 11h 50m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 2h 49m Seattle SEA 17:24 → ANC 20:18DL 2367 8h 58m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 2h 56m Denver DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:56UA 280 10h 28m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734 3h 33m Seattle SEA 20:49 → ANC 23:35AS 228 9h 35m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817 56m Seattle SEA 17:24 → ANC 20:18DL 2367 7h 03m 70% 59%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 51m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 6h 50m 59% 48%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 09:40 → SEA 10:43AS 719 56m Seattle SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83 6h 47m 41% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON