Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:10, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 402 Delta	SLC 17:46	RDU 23:53	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	99%	92%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	8h 01m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	7h 35m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903	2h 22m Kansas City	MCI 19:27 → RDU 23:00DL 4648 · flown by Endeavor	7h 20m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600	7h 15m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	7h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	8h 35m	99%	89%
United Details →	SLC 09:38 → IAD 15:44UA 1322	2h 53m Dulles	IAD 18:37 → RDU 19:52UA 1322	8h 14m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON