Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3691 SMF 06:53 → DEN 10:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3666 SMF 11:42 → DEN 15:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3691 Southwest	SMF 06:53	DEN 10:21	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1889 United Flight history →	SMF 05:00	DEN 08:22	3%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 4776 Southwest	SMF 09:23	DEN 12:46	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 2285 United Flight history →	SMF 08:50	DEN 12:16	5%	2%	0.5%	98%
UA 1055 United	SMF 10:49	DEN 14:26	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3771 Southwest	SMF 11:50	DEN 15:18	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 791 Southwest	SMF 17:46	DEN 21:09	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1961 United Flight history →	SMF 13:00	DEN 16:26	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 566 United Flight history →	SMF 16:19	DEN 19:45	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 3442 Southwest	SMF 13:57	DEN 17:23	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 3666 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 11:42	DEN 15:18	12%	3%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON