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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 40m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 3h 55m Phoenix PHX 12:11 → MIA 20:02AA 404 10h 16m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 10m Denver DEN 15:53 → MIA 22:06UA 445 8h 46m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:59 → PHX 14:25AA 2454 1h 27m Phoenix PHX 15:52 → MIA 23:29AA 1222 7h 30m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 16:54 → MIA 18:51DL 719 9h 06m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:08 → MIA 17:12AA 2461 7h 26m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:08 → DFW 14:02AA 1686 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:58 → MIA 21:55AA 2050 9h 47m 96% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:38 → ORD 17:31AA 2285 49m Chicago ORD 18:20 → MIA 22:21AA 3040 7h 43m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON