Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 3697 at 18:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day OO 3697 SNA 18:15 → SEA 22:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3994 SNA 07:20 → SEA 10:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3697 SkyWest	SNA 18:15	SEA 22:01	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SNA 11:56	SEA 15:18	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1310 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 19:46	SEA 22:30	16%	4%	0.8%	85%
AS 774 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 17:32	SEA 20:20	18%	5%	0.8%	86%
DL 1001 Delta	SNA 14:06	SEA 17:01	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 760 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:45	SEA 17:32	19%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 1378 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 10:44	SEA 13:14	19%	5%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AS 548 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:05	SEA 14:54	19%	5%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
OO 3687 SkyWest	SNA 06:57	SEA 10:33	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1325 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 06:47	SEA 09:42	22%	3%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
AS 702 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 08:05	SEA 10:55	28%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
OO 3994 SkyWest	SNA 07:20	SEA 10:12	33%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON