Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 3467 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 11:48	STS 13:37	14%	4%	1.8%	82%
OO 3056 SkyWest	SNA 16:26	STS 17:52	15%	3%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 21m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	99%	91%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	2h 08m Phoenix	PHX 10:24 → STS 12:40AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	5h 54m	97%	87%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 20:16 → STS 22:06AS 1330	7h 21m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42AS 1325	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → STS 13:34AS 1321	6h 47m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON