Today: AA 5566 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet today AA 5566 SRQ 07:29 → CLT 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2586 SRQ 18:07 → CLT 20:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5566 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SRQ 07:29	CLT 09:19	8%	2%	1.0%	86%
AA 2264 American Flight history →	SRQ 10:49	CLT 12:42	8%	4%	1.0%	92%
AA 1452 American Flight history →	SRQ 13:24	CLT 15:11	21%	8%	1.3%	78%
AA 2143 American	SRQ 16:33	CLT 18:26	22%	7%	2.1%	no record
AA 2586 American	SRQ 18:07	CLT 20:00	24%	10%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON