tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: YX 3698 at 12:12 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3698 Republic SRQ 12:12 ORD 14:24 16% 9% 1.2% no record
UA 1744 United SRQ 16:18 ORD 18:29 30% 12% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:35 → ATL 19:18DL 3115 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 7h 18m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 7h 34m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:30 → CLT 09:24AA 5566 · flown by PSA 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 12:58 → ORD 14:11AA 2530 7h 41m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Miami MIA 08:28 → ORD 10:59AA 1431 5h 37m 91% 81%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 31m Newark EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525 7h 06m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 7h 11m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412 3h 15m New York LGA 20:45 → ORD 22:36DL 2806 9h 06m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:44AA 2264 3h 32m Charlotte CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536 7h 50m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:20 → DCA 15:06AA 2584 53m Washington DCA 15:59 → ORD 17:22AA 1637 6h 02m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON